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Diary: Turkish Fallout, Oz Jobs, US Retail Sales

The economy, earnings and events in Turkey look like dominating markets here and offshore this week.

As well federal parliament is back in Canberra and the big brawl comes tomorrow in the coalition party rooms over the government’s new energy guarantee policy.

So far as the economy is concerned, June quarter wages growth data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday will dominate, followed a day later by the jobs data for July.

The wages data is likely to show no solid growth for the quarter and the year to June. The Federal Government has cut its forecast from 2.75% to 2.25% and according to economists it is likely to remain unchanged at around 2.1%.

The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver says the quarter on quarter growth will be 0.6% and 2.1% year on year. Private sector wages growth is likely to be unchanged at around 1.9% annual.

Thursday sees the release of the July labour force data which is expected to show a 10,000 rise in jobs and unemployment stuck at 5.4%, according to forecasts.

The point to watch for from the release is any further slowing in jobs growth towards the 20 year average of 2% a year. it has slowed from 3.3% at the start of this year to around 2.6% in June.

Tomorrow sees the release of the latest monthly survey of business conditions and confidence from the National Australia Bank and on Wednesday the monthly report on consumer confidence will be issued.

The Australian June half earnings reports will start to ramp up with 43 major companies reporting (see separate story).

Chinese economic activity data for July is due Tuesday is likely to show a slight pick-up in industrial production growth to 6.3% year on year and in retail sales growth to 9.1%, but investment growth remaining around 6%. Watch for data on Chinese real estate investment.Prices data follows later in the week.

In the US, expect solid gains in July retail sales and industrial production data along with continued strength in home building conditions (all due Wednesday) and a rebound in housing starts (Thursday).

These figures for July will give us a better idea of how the US economy started the third quarter after that very solid three months to June.

US June 30 quarterly earnings is almost finished with retailers expected to dominate this week (See separate story).

In the UK, two days of Brexit talks between the UK and EU are scheduled to resume in Brussels on Thursday.

As well the UK also sees labour market data including employee earnings, employment and unemployment. Policymakers are expecting wage inflation to rise, justifying tighter policy. However, previous data showed average employee earnings growth cooling to 2.7%. UK retail sales will also be released, but watch for the impact of the hot weather in July.

View More Articles By Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

At the AFR he was a finance writer, Finance Editor, News Editor and Chief of Staff. At the Nine Network he was supervising producer of Business Sunday for more than 16 years. He has also written for other online and analogue print publications here and overseas.



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