Diary: Oz GDP, RBA, US Jobs, Trump's Tax Plan
A busy week here and offshore with interest rate decisions, US jobs data, US tax, Brexit meetings, a possible partial closure of the US government, the citizenship and same sex marriage bill in Federal Parliament and GDP reports, especially here on Wednesday.
As well central banks in Brazil, Canada and India will be releasing monetary policy decisions later in the week.
In Australia, a big week with the Reserve Bank board meeting tomorrow and September quarter GDP and National Accounts on Wednesday to update us on how the economy is performing.
For the RBA though no change in the cash rate is expected.
The AMP’s chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver says “While strong business conditions, solid jobs growth, improving global growth and the RBA’s own forecasts for a pick-up in growth argue for an eventual rate hike, ongoing low inflation, record low wages growth, uncertainty around consumer spending, signs that the housing cycle is slowing and the still strong $A argue against a rate hike.
“We remain of the view that the RBA will leave the cash rate on hold until a probable rate hike late next year at the earliest,” he added.
Wednesday’s National Accounts is forecast to show growth of 0.7% for the quarter and an annual rate of 3%, up from 2.0% in the year to June. The sharp jump in annual growth will be because the 0.4% contraction in GDP in the September quarter of 2016 drops out.
On top of that there’s the normal start of month data - with a small rise expected in October retail sales (out Tuesday), a fall in Thursday’s trade surplus to fall to around $1.4 billion and a flat outcome for the housing finance report on Friday.
Data for ANZ job ads for November, car sales for last month and activity surveys for the services and construction sector will also be released.
In corporate reports Metcash is now down to release its interim figures later today.
In the US a busy week with the Trump tax plan to be sorted out, agreement needed on a spending bill to head off a partial government shutdown on Friday night, our time and November payroll data to be released on the same day which will be the last big economic release ahead of the Fed’s mid-December meeting.
Dr Oliver wrote at the weekend that so far as the shutdown risk is concerned “there remains a number of outstanding issues including funding for Trump’s wall and it’s doubtful that Congress is ready to agree a long term funding deal just yet so another last minute deal is likely that pushes the issue out another few months.”
Economists expect the November jobs report to shoe 200,000 new jobs were created last month, wage grwth to be around 2.7% (up from 2.5%) and a jobless rate steady on 4.1%.
The US trade balance to worsen and the non-manufacturing conditions ISM (also Tuesday) are expected to remain solid.
The Bank of Canada is expected to leave its overnight rate unchanged at 1% when it delivers its latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday night, our time.
In Asia, China releases its November trade data on Friday to show export growth remaining around 7% year on year and import growth to slow a bit to 14% year on year.
Of interest will be the impact of production curbs on imports of commodities such as iron ore, coal, copper and other metals.
November consumer and producer price inflation will be issued on Saturday.
The final estimate of Japanese third quarter GDP will be issued on Friday.
In Europe UK Prime Minister Theresa May is due to meet with Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, and Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator tonight our time for more talks on settling Britian’s Brexit bill.
The EU has asked Mrs May to bring a “final offer” to tonight’s meeting to end the first phase of talks, giving officials time to consider it ahead of a key summit on December 15.
The Financial Times says “The EU has said it will only proceed to second phase of negotiations if there was sufficient progress on agreeing to divorce terms, including a financial settlement and rights for EU citizens."
Ahead of Monday’s meeting, EU finance ministers meet to elect a new Eurogroup president. Portuguese finance minister Mário Centeno has emerged as the favourite to succeed Jeroen Dijsselbloem of the Netherlands.
Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.
At the AFR he was a finance writer, Finance Editor, News Editor and Chief of Staff. At the Nine Network he was supervising producer of Business Sunday for more than 16 years. He has also written for other online and analogue print publications here and overseas.