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Roger Montgomery
Why We Think BWX Is Worth Watching
Added On - 3/24/2017 11:05:04 AM
A little-known company we hold is BWX Limited. This small Melbourne-based company owns a range of skin and hair care brands.
What Now For Traditional Media?
Added On - 3/24/2017 11:01:44 AM
A couple of decades ago, print media was critical to reaching an audience; now it's relevance has significantly declined. And this switch in advertising spending from traditional media to digital media shows no sign of letting up.
Rising SKEW Means That Tail Risk Is On The Rise
Added On - 3/23/2017 10:32:48 AM
Most of us know about the VIX, which gives an insight into investor sentiment and expected levels of market volatility. But we seldom hear about the SKEW, which is an index derived from the price of S&P 500 tail risk.
Video - How To Generate Stock Ideas
Added On - 3/22/2017 10:27:32 AM
At Montgomery, we strictly adhere to a value philosophy with the goal of purchasing businesses with defensible economic moats at cheap prices. So how does the Montgomery team think about finding attractive investment opportunities?
How The Pie Is Being Sliced
Added On - 3/21/2017 10:34:45 AM
In the recent US elections, Donald Trump successfully harnessed strong voter discontent about rising inequality. He had a point. Recent data show an ever widening gap between the haves and have nots, and falling confidence in the political class.
Resmed's AirFit Masks Appear To Be Boosting Share
Added On - 3/21/2017 10:33:13 AM
Last November, Resmed launched its new range of AirFit masks. This led us to wonder if the uptick in growth in Resmed's second quarter results was due to the new masks. Early indications are that the masks have been well received, and are increasing the company's market share.
What The Repeal Of Obamacare Will Mean
Added On - 3/20/2017 9:41:02 AM
When it comes to political footballs, U.S. healthcare is hard to beat.
Road Ahead Looks Good For Outdoor Advertisers
Added On - 3/20/2017 9:37:31 AM
Historically, outdoor advertising has captured a relatively small share of the overall advertising market. It has also tended to be even more cyclical than the broader advertising market given its impact and return on investment has been less measurable than other forms of media. But this is changing.
Video - What's The Story With Vita Group?
Added On - 3/16/2017 1:15:00 PM
In this video we run through the series of events we've seen in Vita Group Limited over the past 6 months. Viewers should note that The Montgomery Fund and the Montgomery Private fund are both holders of Vita Group shares.
Why Chorus Limited Looks Undervalued
Added On - 3/16/2017 1:11:50 PM
One slightly unusual holding in our domestic funds is Chorus Limited (CNU), New Zealand's largest owner of telecommunications networks.
Do I Really Care About Global Purchasing Power?
Added On - 3/15/2017 10:58:56 AM
Meet Clarence. Clarence is a retired Australian who has enough cash to live on for the rest of his life and has decided he has no need to invest it in the market (lucky him). Clarence can put his money in an Australian bank account, earn a little interest, and go about enjoying the rest of his life.
Is Technical Analysis Mere Hocus Pocus?
Added On - 3/15/2017 10:56:01 AM
As an investor, you'll have seen some market commentators extol the virtues of 'technical' analysis, or charting. And it's easy to believe there is some science behind the approach. But is there really?
Retail CEOs Throw In The Towel On Quick Recovery
Added On - 3/14/2017 11:02:10 AM
The year saw the bankruptcies of a number of mall-based retailers, including Aeropostale, American Apparel, Pacific Sun and The Sports Authority.
Update On Isentia
Added On - 3/10/2017 11:56:00 AM
Following our earlier comments on the Isentia (ASX:ISD) result, we have now met with management, of Isentia as well as major competitor, Meltwater, and formed a view on our holding.
Torpedo Alert: The High-Risk Stocks We Are Avoiding
Added On - 3/10/2017 8:26:16 AM
One of the unpleasant realities of equity market investing is that, from time to time, a portfolio company will deliver disappointing news and suffer a rapid and dramatic decline in market value.
Seek's Half-Year Result
Added On - 3/9/2017 11:05:13 AM
Seek is a high quality business that has been a core part of our portfolio for a few years. We like Seek for a number of reasons.
Why It Pays For Investors To Keep Informed
Added On - 3/7/2017 1:06:45 PM
A recent article by academics from the London Business School shows why it's so important to stay informed of trends and movements in the business landscape
ETFs Are Boosting The Value Of Active Funds
Added On - 3/6/2017 11:36:53 AM
Across the investment world, ETFs are on the rise. And for good reason - as Tim recently noted, ETFs outperform many actively managed funds. But the growing popularity of ETFs is having another consequence - it is making outperforming managed funds even more valuable, and pushing underperforming funds out faster.
Wall St Loves Trump Now, But Will He Really Bring Change?
Added On - 3/6/2017 11:35:18 AM
The S&P 500 has surged around 10 per cent since Donald Trump's election last November, boosted by expectations he would lower company tax, ease bank regulations and raise infrastructure spending. Which is why his inaugural Speech to Congress earlier this week was so eagerly awaited by investors. But will his talk be translated into action?
Buffett's Wealth Proves The Power Of Compounding
Added On - 3/3/2017 10:59:22 AM
Let's face it, we can't all be as successful as Warren Buffett. But there are some investment lessons we can definitely learn from him. And one of those is to profit from the power of compounding.
Trump's Border Tax & For Your Portfolio
Added On - 3/3/2017 10:57:23 AM
In recent weeks, the Montgomery Global team has spent a lot of time thinking about the implications of a potential US border adjustment tax ('BAT') and repositioning our portfolios to address some of the asymmetric risks we identified.
Was Ramsay's Rex Really Worth A Billion Dollars?
Added On - 3/2/2017 1:07:16 PM
Ramsay Health Care produced a great result for the first half of FY17 and kept its tradition of upgrading full-year guidance. The market should have received this result well, particularly in light of weak industry activity, were it not for one bit of unexpected news - the retirement of CEO, Chris Rex.
Should You Take Buffett's Advice & Opt For Index Funds?
Added On - 3/1/2017 1:26:21 PM
You may have read the recent comments by Warren Buffet to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders about the merits of active fund management versus index funds.
How Berkshire Views Investments In China, Airlines & Tech
Added On - 3/1/2017 1:23:34 PM
If you had money to invest, where should you put it? According to Warren Buffett's business partner, Charlie Munger, you should look at China.
REA Continues To Innovate & Grow
Added On - 2/28/2017 12:41:51 PM
With property prices still heading north - particularly in the major capitals - we recently took the opportunity to meet with the CEO and CFO of REA Group (ASX: REA), Tracey Fellows and Owen Wilson. Our discussion gave us a greater insight into REA's 1H17 result and the prospects of Australia's leading online real estate advertising company.
Trump Has Been 'Great' For US Media Businesses
Added On - 2/27/2017 11:09:35 AM
Trump's win have been an undeniable boon for news organisations, which have enjoyed a massive boost in subscriber numbers.
How Facebook Has Become The Go-To Platform For Advertisers
Added On - 2/27/2017 11:08:53 AM
Facebook is an advertising business, and it competes with other advertising businesses - the majority of which should be worried.
Is Trump's White House Itching For Another War?
Added On - 2/27/2017 11:07:34 AM
As investors, there are many macro events we have to consider, both positive and negative. Since the election of Donald Trump, we've had to consider one more - the prospect of a war involving the US.
Companies Of All Sizes Can Produce Better Returns
Added On - 2/24/2017 11:02:47 AM
Do you ever wonder why some funds limit themselves to the leading stocks in an index? So do we.
Video - A Great Display For Carsales
Added On - 2/23/2017 11:15:32 AM
We've had a pleasing reporting season thus far, and Carsales is one of our holdings that produced a great result.
Reviewing Isentia
Added On - 2/23/2017 11:13:05 AM
As many investors have noted, iSentia Limited (ASX: ISD) delivered a poor earnings announcement yesterday.
Why Our Oil Refineries Are Shutting Down
Added On - 2/22/2017 10:42:40 AM
Back in the 1960s, manufacturing contributed 25% to Australia's GDP. Today, this figure has dropped below 9%, largely due to an inability to compete on cost.
Macquarie Analysts Warn On Rising Debt Wave
Added On - 2/21/2017 11:18:47 AM
Analysts at Macquarie Research, Viktor Shvets and Chetan Seth, have just released an excellent piece titled 'Surfing the debt wave. Don't look down'.
Fulfillment Gives Amazon Yet Another Way To Boost Profits
Added On - 2/20/2017 11:31:42 AM
Amazon never ceases to astound. We've written before about Amazon Prime, and the company's disruptive force wherever it goes. Today, we shine a light on a low-profile Amazon business that has quietly grown into a profitable juggernaut - Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA).
Insperity Reaccelerates
Added On - 2/20/2017 11:29:31 AM
Insperity has been our best long performer in our global portfolios to date, with the stock nearly doubling since we first bought it about one year ago.
The Spectacular Growth Of eSports
Added On - 2/17/2017 11:14:34 AM
eSports is increasingly becoming an area in which video game publishers are trying to gain a foothold.
Video - Review Of Reporting Season
Added On - 2/16/2017 5:12:08 PM
If we look at the overall market, the ASX200 Index is up close to 3% in the first two weeks of February, so across the overall market, the news so far appears to be pretty good. In this video Portfolio Manager Tim Kelley discusses a few stocks held in The Montgomery Fund.
Value Investing Giant Issues A Warning
Added On - 2/16/2017 5:09:13 PM
Seth Klarman's Baupost Group is the world's 11th largest hedge fund. And Klarman, a renowned value investor, has sometimes been compared to Warren Buffett. So when he offers his analysis, it's worth reading. Which is why we're pleased to bring you excerpts from Klarman's latest investor letter.
Apple's Share Price Bounces Back
Added On - 2/15/2017 10:33:08 AM
Investors in Apple stock are being rewarded for their patience by holding on as the share price pendulum swings back from unjustifiably low levels.
Retailers Make Hay While The Sun Shines
Added On - 2/15/2017 10:31:11 AM
Furniture and appliance retailers, like JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman, are enjoying their best trading conditions in a decade, buoyed by low interest rates and a renovation boom. Alas, these sunny conditions won't last.
Has Italy's Economy Hit Crisis Point?
Added On - 2/14/2017 1:22:50 PM
These days, most investors looking beyond our shores are focused on the US. But the situation in Europe is also worth watching closely, particularly in Italy - the world's eighth biggest economy - which appears to be in dire straits.
IDP Capitalises On Global Demand For A Good Education
Added On - 2/14/2017 1:19:19 PM
We hold IDP in the portfolios and consider it well placed strategically to benefit from rapidly increasing global demand for high quality tertiary education
Trump Delivers More Bank Dividends
Added On - 2/13/2017 11:44:07 AM
If Trump loosens the shackles of bank regulation, expect a return to the bad old days of 'profit before care', a rally in financial stocks, followed by a more ominous fallout.
Is Social Media Affecting Your Performance?
Added On - 2/10/2017 11:03:44 AM
Is it becoming more difficult to maintain a steady focus in a world of omnipresent social media distractions?
When Directors Sell, Should You Sell Too?
Added On - 2/9/2017 12:26:11 PM
When directors buy or sell shares in their company, most people believe they are sending a strong signal to the market about the firm's prospects. But how strong is the correlation between director trades and share price movements? And should you buy or sell because a director has too? We did some research to get closer to the truth.
It's Getting Tougher Out There For Our Retailers
Added On - 2/9/2017 12:23:00 PM
Recently, we've seen a number of established businesses hit the wall, under the twin assaults of online shopping and the entry of international brands. The bad news is: it's not about to get any easier.
Mr Turnbull, It's Time We Stopped Selling Off The Farm
Added On - 2/8/2017 11:42:17 AM
Malcolm Turnbull is rumoured to be very concerned about Australia losing its coveted AAA credit rating. Politically, it would be a terrible look were it to occur on his watch. Our shaky credit rating reflects the failure of successive governments to deal with our most pressing economic issue - the Balance of Payments Current Account Deficit. And I don't see things changing soon.
Video - To BHP Or Not To BHP?
Added On - 2/7/2017 11:36:05 AM
In this video insight we explain the recent period of under performance of The Montgomery Fund. Why has the index surged ahead and can this continue?
Watch Out For The Market Disruptors
Added On - 2/7/2017 11:23:05 AM
In our globalised, high-tech world, market disruptors - like Aldi, Amazon and artificial intelligence - are coming faster than ever before.
Solving The Prisoner's Dilemma
Added On - 2/7/2017 11:20:52 AM
The Prisoner's Dilemma provides a framework for understanding how to strike a balance between competition and cooperation. It's possible for rival firms in a competitive market to solve the Prisoner's Dilemma, without collusion, and for their mutual benefit. Let's look at how it can be done.
Resmed's Growing Customer Base
Added On - 2/6/2017 12:23:46 PM
We've postured that Resmed has fundamentally changed the US business model in its favour with its Airsense platform. After the release of Resmed's second quarter results for financial year 2017, we explore how it is tracking against this thesis.
Foot Locker: The Next Step
Added On - 2/6/2017 12:06:44 PM
Foot Locker shares have been a very profitable path for investors over the past year.
Looking For Value? Don't Ignore The Large Caps
Added On - 2/3/2017 11:12:54 AM
If a value investor with a long investment horizon had bought Apple shares when the price languished in the $90s, they would be sitting on a 40% to 60% annualised return today. Not a bad return on the largest of large caps that money can buy.
We Don't Need Those Rates To Rise
Added On - 2/3/2017 11:10:26 AM
In terms of household debt to disposable income (187 per cent) and household debt to GDP (125 per cent), Australian householders are vying for gold in the debt Olympics.
The Great Unwind
Added On - 2/3/2017 11:07:17 AM
Although not a front-of-mind issue at present, a potential unwind of the Fed's balance sheet could cause volatility in financial markets in the future.
Apple's Other $25 Billion Business
Added On - 2/3/2017 11:03:39 AM
Despite putting on nearly 40% over the last nine months, we continue to believe Apple is undervalued.
Second-Level Thinking On Australian Banks
Added On - 2/2/2017 12:35:44 PM
Given that bank updates are at best a distillation of the last three months, what can they offer about turning points other than that they have passed?
When Is Quality Ever Cheap?
Added On - 2/2/2017 11:04:43 AM
All investing is value investing. If price is what you pay, value is what you receive. Your job as an investor this year - and every year - is to pay a lower price than the value you get.
Can A Machine Read Company Announcements?
Added On - 2/2/2017 11:01:14 AM
Is there scope to train a machine to extract insights from this type of text data as well as the hard numbers?
Are Small & Mid-Cap Stocks Good Value?
Added On - 1/30/2017 12:50:03 PM
Let me start by making something clear. The best returns will not come from the large-cap blue chips that so many baby boomers are invested in. They are likely to come from the stocks that have been beaten up the most in recent months.
Buyer Beware When Betting On Bendigo
Added On - 1/30/2017 12:48:24 PM
In the nine months to January 2017, Bendigo returned more than 70 per cent to investors. That is, the bank effectively paid investors more than 12 years' worth of dividends in one. For a bank whose underlying business is potentially shrinking, one wonders if these returns are justified.
After Its Plunge, Is McMillan Shakespeare A Bargain?
Added On - 1/25/2017 3:06:39 PM
Since hitting a high of around $15 in mid-2016, McMillan Shakespeare (ASX: MMS) has fallen to around $11. So we conducted some due diligence.
Trialling A New Car Model
Added On - 1/24/2017 12:46:22 PM
Carsales (ASX: CAR) has an indirect investment in carconnect, a site that's trying to disrupt the way new cars are sold in Australia. Many people dislike haggling with dealers, so carconnect has flipped the model to make dealers tender for your business online. Sounds great for buyers right? But what's the potential upside for Carsales?
Better Investment Decisions Using 'Mindfulness'
Added On - 1/23/2017 10:58:46 AM
Investing is a sport for the mind. It requires an enormous amount of training and continual refinement. But, like for any sport, it's not just about the number of hours you put in; it's also about the productivity of the effort.
Warning: There Might Be Bank Pain Ahead
Added On - 1/20/2017 11:54:46 AM
Since early November 2016, owners of Australian bank shares have been heartened to see stock prices rise sharply. But this could be as good as it gets.
Video - Trump Tax Overhaul
Added On - 1/18/2017 3:24:23 PM
With Donald Trump's inauguration just around the corner and tax reform a top agenda item for both the new administration and the Republican-controlled Congress, it is important for investors to consider the implications of the Republicans' proposed overhaul of the US tax code.
4 Key Issues For Bank Shares In 2017
Added On - 1/18/2017 10:46:50 AM
At current levels, we see all the banks as being similarly expensive.
What You Need To Know About Blockchain
Added On - 1/17/2017 3:28:29 PM
Back in 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto conceptualized the first blockchain. The following year, he used it as a core component of the digital currency, bitcoin. Since then, blockchain has become something of a buzz word. So what is it, and why does it matter?
It's Time To Adjust For A Trump Presidency
Added On - 1/17/2017 12:58:34 PM
At Montgomery, we have been considering the potential economic and market consequences of a Trump presidency since the US elections last November - and even before - and have positioned our global funds accordingly.
The Key Investment Trends In FY16
Added On - 1/16/2017 9:46:36 AM
The 2016 financial year saw some significant changes in investment in Australia. There were major movements in relation to global shares, fixed interest, global property and infrastructure, and alternatives. We can learn a lot by looking at where the money flowed.
Irrational Selling Creates Opportunity
Added On - 1/12/2017 2:49:45 PM
Intuitively investors know the principles of buying low and selling high. Each year Dalbar, a US based research firm, conducts their Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behaviour
Farewell 2016, Hello 2017
Added On - 1/11/2017 12:35:18 PM
After no gain, excluding dividends, over the 30 months from December 2013 to June 2016, the Australian All Ordinaries Index recorded a 7.7 per cent bounce in the December 2016 half-year.
Will Higher Rates Trump The Tax Rate Benefit?
Added On - 12/20/2016 12:25:30 PM
Are the potential benefits of a Trump presidency now 'priced in'?
What 2016 Has Taught Us About Investing In Equities
Added On - 12/19/2016 1:43:01 PM
If you know for sure that equities are heading for a fall, then you should not own equities today. But the problem is, you cannot know for sure where equity prices are headed. No one does.
NSW's New Hospital Model
Added On - 12/16/2016 11:08:42 AM
Positive feedback for Sydney's Northern Beaches Hospital has allowed the NSW Government to push ahead with a hospital model that could benefit all stakeholders, including private healthcare operators.
Is It Time To Buy Vocus & TPG?
Added On - 12/16/2016 11:07:09 AM
These telcos are now trading on seemingly attractive multiples. So, is it time to buy?
Tips For Investing In An Uncertain World
Added On - 12/15/2016 11:02:31 AM
Investing is not a simple process. It involves drawing conclusions from incomplete evidence in an ever-changing world. But if we think about how our minds work when confronted by these uncertainties, then we are taking an important step to making better investment decisions.
Should You Invest More In Resources?
Added On - 12/13/2016 2:10:45 PM
If we sort the ASX300 by total return for YTD 2016, we see quite a number of companies have returned more than 100%.
The New Wave Of Super Changes
Added On - 12/12/2016 10:46:31 AM
In May, the Australian Government announced a number of changes to superannuation. It's now confirmed these changes will be legislated, taking effect from 1 July 2017. Let's look at the key changes, and how they might affect you.
Free-To-Air TV Headwinds Blowing Stronger
Added On - 12/12/2016 10:43:47 AM
Ten Network Holdings held its 2016 annual general meeting last week. The news was not great for shareholders, who are witnessing the decline of a once-robust media company.
 

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