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Roger Montgomery
Search For Yield & The Ballooning Bond Market
Added On - 6/22/2018 11:27:36 AM
As balance sheets, valuations and the economy continue to stretch we may be seeing the beginning of an unwind. Here at Montgomery Global, we are laser focused on avoiding companies that have synthetically benefited from credit markets that have allowed weak businesses to borrow debt at inorganically cheap rates, lowering their cost of capital and thus elevating stock prices beyond what underlying fundamentals can support.
Buying Stocks In A Bull Market
Added On - 6/21/2018 10:45:11 AM
In this video, Chris discusses how we are buying stocks in this bull market, with today's bull market run in the S&P closing in on 10 years. So far, this bull market ranks number two in length, behind the expansion of the 1990s.
You Want Disruption? Take A Look At 3D Printing
Added On - 6/20/2018 11:31:58 AM
The relentless pace of technological disruption shows no signs of abating. The latest major disruptor is 3D printing, which looks set to revolutionise the way we make almost everything - from cars to houses, and even human body parts.
The Shifting Sands Of Banking
Added On - 6/18/2018 10:37:28 AM
Banking, an industry that has changed very little over hundreds of years, is now being gripped by a tsunami of technological change. At a recent industry conference, banking executives laid out their plans for how to deal with this shifting landscape, as well as provided insights into the current state of play for banks in the U.S. and globally.
Could New Technology Threaten Bank Profits?
Added On - 6/15/2018 2:41:31 AM
Forget the Royal Commission. An even greater threat to Aussie banks lies just over the horizon in the form of new high-tech competitors that can price financial products at levels that our banks find impossible to match.
7 Million Reasons To Protect The Downside
Added On - 6/13/2018 10:56:11 AM
Who on earth ever wanted their money to take nose-dive? (Answer: nobody). But the idea of reducing downside risk immediately raises some questions, like: what's the value of protecting the downside? Or, what do I have to give up to insure against the downside? And of course, how do I go about putting downside protection in place?
Three Key Lessons For Value Investors
Added On - 6/8/2018 10:48:59 AM
In my time at Montgomery, I've learnt many valuable investment lessons. Here, I want to share three key lessons that have been instrumental to the way I make investment decisions.
The Relentless Rise Of Online Gaming
Added On - 6/7/2018 11:43:10 AM
If you're an investor looking for growth, you might want to check out companies involved in gaming. You see, gaming is big, and getting bigger. And it's helping to propel some of the largest businesses on the planet.
Is Now The Time To Invest In Global Equities?
Added On - 6/6/2018 11:35:47 AM
Today, we ask the question: is now the time in invest in global equities?
The Power Of Apple's Services Business
Added On - 6/5/2018 11:04:18 AM
In this video insight Daniel provides an update on Apple. Now that the market has finally caught on to the power of Apple's services business how is the stock still representing compelling value?
Punch Card Investing
Added On - 6/5/2018 10:45:39 AM
Every bubble must burst. It destroys money and causes businesses and investors to suffer. But this is a natural process of just about every aspect of life. It’s a way to keep balanced. When we…
Is Loan Book Growth Stabilising?
Added On - 6/4/2018 11:17:25 AM
The statistical release of APRA and the RBA's credit growth data for April shows a stabilisation in the rate of overall mortgage, personal and business loan book growth at 5 per cent across the overall Australian market
Thank Cheap Money For All The Tech
Added On - 6/1/2018 11:48:10 AM
What has fueled all of the rapid advancement we have most recently witnessed? The answer of course is abundant cheap money.
Thinking About An Autonomous Future
Added On - 6/1/2018 11:46:47 AM
Autonomous vehicles and the evolution of Transport as a Service (TaaS) are topics that we have spent a significant amount of time thinking (and writing) about in the past year or so. We see these developments as having a profound impact in many industries and have begun to remove from our portfolios businesses that we see as being on the wrong side of them.
Why We See Value In Telstra
Added On - 5/31/2018 12:11:05 PM
In this week's video insight Tim discusses our view on Telstra. We have been reasonably critical of Telstra over the years, although given the extent of the share price decline we think Telstra has now reached a point in which it offers value upside.
Wesfarmers' UK Debacle Shows The Risks Of Acquisition-Based Growth
Added On - 5/31/2018 12:08:25 PM
In 2016, Wesfarmers raised the eyebrows of many investors when it expanded into the UK and Ireland hardware business. Two years later and $1.7 billion down on its investment, WES has decided to pull out. It shows yet again why growth through acquisition can be a risky strategy.
Compound Interest - Eighth Wonder Of The World
Added On - 5/29/2018 10:29:59 AM
Albert Einstein once said 'compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn't, pays it'. The following quirky example illustrates how compound interest works, and there are a number of takeaways for investors.
Can An Investor Profit From M&A Activity?
Added On - 5/25/2018 3:52:32 PM
Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in Australia has soared over the last year. With lofty premiums being bid by many would-be suitors, it makes you wonder: is there a way for investors to profit from all this M&A action?
Right Place, WRONG Time
Added On - 5/25/2018 3:49:00 PM
A few weeks ago I wrote that Montgomery Global looks to maximize the chance of investment success by investing in the right place AND at the right time. I also promised a fun follow up example to this somewhat counterintuitive claim below.
What Kind Of Investor Are You?
Added On - 5/24/2018 1:40:05 PM
We associate investment skill with outperformance (at least over long stretches of time), and so it is instructive to think about how skill maps to outperformance.
If Content Is King, Where Does Spotify Stand?
Added On - 5/24/2018 1:30:53 PM
But in a long-suffering industry where content is still king, does being the saviour make Spotify a good investment?
Why The 'New Age' Businesses Are Still Too Expensive
Added On - 5/23/2018 11:56:16 AM
I've been fascinated by the soaring trajectory of some of our smaller 'new age' companies - like A2M, PushPay, Afterpay and Kogan - whose share prices have rallied over 600 per cent since 2017. We've never owned these companies as they haven't met our tough intrinsic valuation hurdles.
The Digital Music Streaming Win-Win-Win
Added On - 5/23/2018 11:54:09 AM
Structural changes within industries can create opportunities for investors on both the long and the short side.
Assessing The Healthscope Takeover Proposals
Added On - 5/22/2018 11:12:29 AM
On 26 April, Healthscope Limited (ASX:HSO) received a non-binding indication of interest from a BGH-led consortium in relation to a proposal to acquire HSO for a price of $2.36 per share, which was a 16 per cent premium to the price prevailing before the approach.
Where Are The Markets Headed?
Added On - 5/21/2018 11:59:44 AM
Predicting market direction is very hard to do. In this week's video insight, Roger presents some of the facts via a series of charts to let you draw your own conclusions as to where markets are headed in the next 12-18 months.
Codan - Two Announcements Released Today
Added On - 5/21/2018 11:52:39 AM
Back in March, we wrote about Codan (ASX:CDA), and how I am personally enthused about their technology. Today, the company has made two announcements that the market has reacted positively to.
Will Aussies Remain Underinvested In The Global Technology Growth Story?
Added On - 5/18/2018 12:35:46 PM
One of the sectors Australian investors have trouble accessing - given the domicile of the companies - are high quality global technology businesses, and they account for a little over 30 per cent of the Montgomery Global portfolios.
The Alexa Advantage
Added On - 5/16/2018 10:49:59 AM
Amazon's Alexa is pushing the boundaries of what speech recognition technology can achieve. While this new technology is still developing, one thing is becoming apparent: Alexa is strengthening Amazon's moat in nuanced ways.
Do You Have The Patience To Buy And Hold?
Added On - 5/15/2018 11:29:55 AM
One of the most common investment adages one hears is that "time in the market beats timing the market," particularly when it comes to passive index investing.
Let's Take A Look At The Banks' Results
Added On - 5/15/2018 11:24:27 AM
In the midst of the Royal Commission into Misconduct in Financial Services, the major banks have released their latest half yearly results. The market headed into the reporting period with a high degree of apprehension given the public backlash emanating from the revelations coming from testimony at the Royal Commission to date.
AMP Demonstrates Capital Concern For Income Investors
Added On - 5/11/2018 12:13:00 PM
So far this year the share price of AMP (ASX:AMP) is down by 22 per cent. That creates a problem for investors who were tempted by the stocks promise of juicy dividends. And reminds us that investing for income alone isn't a good investment strategy.
When Will Blue Sky's Horror Run End?
Added On - 5/11/2018 12:10:11 PM
In March, US hedge fund, Glaucus, went short on Blue Sky Alternative Investments (ASX:BLA) due to what it perceived as exaggerations in the fund manager's fee-earning assets under management. Since then, things have gone from bad to worse for BLA investors. And the bad news shows no signs of abating.
Which Businesses Could Lose Out If Migrant Numbers Are Cut?
Added On - 5/11/2018 2:06:29 AM
The national debate over immigration policy has been heating up for some time. Clogged roads, crowded trains and buses, and surging house prices are just some of the issues being blamed on our increased migrant intake. So, which businesses would be impacted if the government tightens the tap?
What Does Active Management Look Like?
Added On - 5/9/2018 8:58:53 AM
In this week's video insight Andrew shows the sector exposure for a typical index fund and the Montgomery Global Fund, what can be seen? Active management it is about investing in the right places at the right time.
51job: A Job Well Done
Added On - 5/9/2018 8:55:36 AM
51job (Nasdaq: JOBS), the Chinese online job listing platform, is a company that has been in the global fund portfolios for some time now. The company is executing well on its strategy to build out the premier online jobs platform in China, with recent price increases being the highlight of the company's recently reported Q1 earnings.
So Is It A Good Time To Invest Globally?
Added On - 5/8/2018 1:12:57 PM
It is only natural for investors and advisers alike to question whether now is a good time is to invest in global equities. As an investment manager, we are constantly asked if it is the right time to either add more funds or redeem funds from their portfolios. Here we discuss what we do in our own funds.
How The New Privacy Regulations Could Benefit Alphabet & Facebook
Added On - 5/7/2018 10:26:13 AM
On 25 May, new EU regulations take effect giving internet users substantially more control over how their data is shared and used, and creating significant penalties for noncompliance.
Driving Reform In The Automotive Market
Added On - 5/7/2018 10:23:13 AM
It's not often I'm motivated to republish, in its entirety, a speech from the head of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.
Investment Returns: 1900-2017
Added On - 5/4/2018 10:50:55 AM
Any investor looking for long term context should read the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018 by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the London Business School. They have analysed investment returns, volatility, and inflation from 23 countries since 1900.
Where Is The Inflation?
Added On - 5/4/2018 10:49:00 AM
For years now, US policymakers have been struggling to generate a modest level of inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has an objective to average around 2 per cent annual inflation; and for years has not been able to achieve it.
Why You Need To keep An Eye On US Treasury Bonds
Added On - 5/2/2018 8:54:31 PM
Many stockmarket investors don't pay much attention to movements in US Treasury Bonds. But there are some very strong reasons why they should. And one of those is their impact on share prices.
Aristocrat's Advantage
Added On - 5/1/2018 10:23:08 AM
In this video insight Lisa identifies a company in the online gaming industry that has achieved competitive advantage and is emerging as a market leader.
St. James's Place Shows You Can't Keep Good FUM Down
Added On - 5/1/2018 10:19:05 AM
While a lot of people Down Under were dusting off kips and tucking fresh pineapples into their wallets late last Tuesday evening in preparation for the Anzac Day ahead, you may have just missed the funds report from St. James's Place coming out of the United Kingdom.
Deutsche Calls Time On Its Investment Banking
Added On - 4/30/2018 9:13:09 AM
New CEO, Christian Sewing, has called time on Deutsche Bank's global Investment Banking ambitions and this will hopefully see an end of their nightmare on Wall Street.
What A Weaker A$ Means For Your Investments
Added On - 4/30/2018 9:09:10 AM
Back in January, we saw a steep increase in the value of the Australian dollar vs. the US dollar. However, since then, the Australian dollar has declined against the major currencies. If this trend continues, it could pay to be overweight businesses that benefit from a weaker Australian dollar.
How Will The Banks Do In The First Half Results?
Added On - 4/30/2018 9:06:22 AM
In this video insight Stuart discusses the banks. They have dominated the media headlines for all the wrong reasons recently. Given this backdrop, first half results come at a very interesting time.
One Day Can Be A Long Time In The Market
Added On - 4/24/2018 10:57:55 AM
iSelect Limited (ASX: ISU), has seen its share price decline 78 percent, from $2.20 at July 2017 to the current $0.48.
Right Place, Right Time
Added On - 4/24/2018 10:56:16 AM
Last week we had the pleasure of sitting down with some of Montgomery Global's friends and clients in (a very sunny) Melbourne to discuss how we maximize the chance of investing success: it all comes down to being in the right place at the right time. But what does this mean?
The Decline Of The Overpriced Consumer Brand?
Added On - 4/23/2018 10:15:48 AM
Today CPG giants are reaping what they've sown, as consumers increasingly turn away from overpriced branded products and retailers push deeper into lower priced, better value private labels.
Two Reasons For The Flattening US Yield Curve
Added On - 4/23/2018 10:13:07 AM
If you follow global financial trends, you would have noted the continual (and recently accelerating) decline in the slope of the US yield curve. Recently, it has narrowed to a level not seen since 2007.
Understanding Insurance Broking
Added On - 4/20/2018 10:11:11 AM
You may not be too familiar with Steadfast Group (ASX: SDF) and AUB Group (ASX: AUB), but these insurance brokers are high quality businesses in an industry with high barriers to entry. Which is why we are very happy to hold them in our funds.
Is BT Suffering From Style Headwinds?
Added On - 4/18/2018 10:46:25 AM
In this video insight Tim discusses a position The Montgomery Fund recently took in BT Investment Management (ASX:BTT).
Advertisers Winning From The Royal Commission
Added On - 4/17/2018 9:52:15 AM
The Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry is bad news for banks and other organisations that are being put under the microscope. But it's been a boon for advertisers.
Facebook's Perilous Path To Regulation
Added On - 4/16/2018 10:51:18 AM
After ten hours of questioning, it became clear that all parties involved agreed that some form of regulation over how internet companies handle private data was required.
How Alarmed Should We Be About Levels Of Debt?
Added On - 4/13/2018 10:30:28 AM
According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), global debt hit US$237 trillion in the December 2017 Quarter, over 310 per cent of GDP of US$76 trillion.
How Many Lines?
Added On - 4/12/2018 11:02:40 AM
One of the cooler sites you can find on the interweb is David McCandless' informationisbeautiful.net - a site aimed at using data visualisation and information design to convey interesting stories and ideas.
Grantham Says Beware The Market 'Melt-Up'
Added On - 4/11/2018 10:49:14 AM
Alas, there's no magic signal to tell us when this market could savagely correct. The latest note of caution comes from famed US investor, Jeremy Grantham. He believes we are seeing a 'melt-up' in the stock market - the final stages of a great bubble near to bursting.
A Framework For Valuing Online Technology Platforms
Added On - 4/11/2018 10:44:16 AM
In this week's video insight, George discusses the framework that the Montgomery Global team uses when looking at high growth online technology platforms.
Have We Reached Peak Stupid On Electricity?
Added On - 4/10/2018 10:31:53 AM
Building a new coal fired power station does not make financial sense today and will make even less financial sense in the years to come so the message to politicians is please do not waste my tax money on doing something that does not make sense.
A China Trade War?
Added On - 4/9/2018 11:07:47 AM
With the risk of a trade war between the U.S. and China, volatility is creeping back into markets. On Wednesday, after China announced retaliatory tariffs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2 per cent in the opening minutes, only to end the session up around 1 per cent, presumably on the hope that a compromise will ultimately be reached.
It's Not All About The Volatility!
Added On - 4/5/2018 10:43:47 AM
The first quarter of this calendar year has seen some wild moves in equity markets, especially when compared to the quiet calm of the share market in 2017
Which High Flyers Will Withstand The Blowtorch Of Competition?
Added On - 4/4/2018 10:30:12 AM
Some of our high-flying concept companies are about to feel the blowtorch of increased competition. How they respond could be provide an insight into whether they are prepared for the new competitive landscape - or if they can do anything about it.
Google Treads On Amazon's Turf
Added On - 4/3/2018 5:01:53 PM
Amidst last month's furore over Cambridge Analytica and Facebook's data practices, Google quietly announced the launch of Shopping Actions, a unified shopping platform across Google's digital properties
51job Pulls The Pricing Lever
Added On - 3/29/2018 10:02:15 AM
51job has been a company the Montgomery Global team has been following for many years now.
Video - The Trillion Dollar Question
Added On - 3/28/2018 11:17:28 AM
In this week's video insight Chris discusses the most valuable companies in the world. Do you know which company is going to the be the first to be worth one trillion dollars?
The Tectonic Shift For Facebook
Added On - 3/27/2018 10:40:34 AM
Last Friday, I attended a conference call with Dr R David Edelman, Former Special Assistant to President Obama for Economic and Technology Policy, National Economic Council (NEC), where he discussed the tectonic shift in terms of the headwinds facing Facebook, and to a lesser degree the US Technology Sector.
Why The Banks Are Cutting Mortgage Rates
Added On - 3/26/2018 10:58:31 AM
After raising standard variable rates on interest only and investment property mortgages in 2016 and 2017, the big banks have recently unwound some of these increases. This has surprised some observers. So, what's going on?
US Consumer: "I Feel Good!"
Added On - 3/23/2018 11:20:13 AM
The US consumer is feeling good! Confidence is up, wages are rising and inflation is benign.
Facebook & The Power Of Social Data
Added On - 3/22/2018 10:43:32 AM
Whatever happens to be the political or regulatory fallout from these recent developments, this will be an interesting space to watch, not only with respect to Facebook, but also for the broader group of megacap technology companies.
Bill Shorten Wants Your Grandparents' Last $45
Added On - 3/21/2018 11:11:36 AM
In this week's video insight Roger discusses Bill Shorten's attack on franked dividends. He's simply putting millennials against baby boomers. Is Voting for Labor a vote against your parents and grandparents?
The Fall Of Theranos Shows Why You Need To Scrutinise Company Claims
Added On - 3/21/2018 11:07:24 AM
How much importance should investors place on the claims of a company's management team? As the demise of U.S. health tech business, Theranos, shows - not too much. Because, sometimes, management can play fast and loose with the truth.
Time To Rein In The Leverage?
Added On - 3/20/2018 6:01:09 PM
In a recent interview, Warren Buffett shared the wisdom from Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman, Charlie Munger.
Why Codan Satisfies My Inner Geek
Added On - 3/16/2018 7:08:18 PM
In Adelaide, well away from Australia's better known tech centres, is a small, innovative company that is leading the world in the technology it creates. It’s called Codan (ASX:CDA). And once you read about it, I think you’ll agree that this is a company that’s worth a second look.
Australia's Foreign Debt Problem
Added On - 3/16/2018 7:05:27 PM
At almost $1 trillion, Australia’s net foreign debt is close to 60 per cent of GDP and renders us extremely susceptible to rising global interest rates.
Dividends. What's All The Fuss?
Added On - 3/15/2018 1:24:47 PM
In the last few days Opposition Labor Leader Bill Shorten has proposed a radical transformation of dividend imputation. It's worth looking at what all the fuss is about.
U.S. IT Spending Growth is Coming Back
Added On - 3/14/2018 9:05:25 AM
For the last two decades, U.S. IT spending, as a percentage of total fixed investment, has been oscillating in a narrow range, no longer growing like it did over preceding decades.
Video - Global Equities Exposure In your portfolio?
Added On - 3/14/2018 9:02:26 AM
In this week's video insight David compares Australia's top five businesses to the global top five and provides various observations.
Who Gets Gold In The e-Commerce Olympics?
Added On - 3/14/2018 9:00:16 AM
In today's memo I want to take the pulse of e-commerce across the globe given its becoming such a wonderful opportunity for some businesses, and such a disturbing threat for other businesses.
Which Industries Are The Most Valuable Today?
Added On - 3/9/2018 10:09:49 AM
Readers will know that we buy the publicly traded stocks of individual global businesses when we identify: (i) a high degree of business quality; and (ii) substantial evidence that the business is being underpriced by the market.
Oz Retail Sales Update..Tailwinds For Some
Added On - 3/8/2018 11:04:56 AM
We’re keen to keep an eye on retail sales. You might recall we have previously explained that on the positive side, unemployment if very low, is very good for retail conditions.
 

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