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Marcus Today End Of Day Report
BY HENRY JENNINGS - MARCUS TODAY COMMENTATOR - 08/02/2018
VIEW MORE ARTICLES BY HENRY JENNINGS

 Market summary

  • ASX 200 fights back from early losses to close up 14 at 5891.
  • High 5894 Low 5838.Volumes dropping off slightly.
  • One Nation rules out tax cuts.
  • Financials rally on NAB results. CBA still struggles.
  • Miners take a hit on lower metal prices despite good RIO results.
  • Energy shares lower as WTI falls.
  • TLS finds some friends.
  • AUD steady at 78.24c
  • Bitcoin rally continues up to US$8158.
  • AUD Bullion around $1313
  • US futures turn positive up 53 points.
  • Asian markets mixed with CSI 300 down -1.54% and Japan +1.15%.

FUTURES AND HIGHS AND LOWS

Mt Stuff

  • HENRY CALL – Down 300 in two days and only up 43 yesterday? We continue to exercise patience remaining cautious until dust settles.
  • TRADING PORTFOLIO – No trades. We are leaving our stops where they are. Henry discusses March Index rebalancing with some winners and losers.
  • SMALL STOCK PORTFOLIO – We had a better day yesterday on the back of Wall Street’s bounce.
  • INSIDERS - During the current market volatility we have had few new Insiders Insights. Would be great to get some, as reporting season and current volatility throws up some good opportunities. Looking forward to 'crowd sourcing' more profitable ideas.
  • INSIDERS CONNECT WITH US - We invite you to send us your own stock ideas. We also have the facility for you to email us any questions. Click on the "Ask Marcus Today" button in the newsletter or below - Ask us anything:

https://marcustoday.com.au/webpages/images/report/20171016/askmarcusbutton.jpg https://marcustoday.com.au/webpages/images/report/20171016/tellusyourstockideas.jpg

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Advancers and Decliners

  • IEL +0.74% rally continues as brokers upgrade.
  • CAR -2.48% broker downgrades after result.
  • SWM +7.00% good bounce back.
  • BKL +6.53% thin volume.
  • DMP +3.88% short squeeze.
  • AOG +2.79% EHE +1.53% potential class action.
  • KGN +3.20% buyers chasing.
  • BIG -6.73% continued profit taking.
  • TAH -6.85% messy result and UK issues.
  • WSA -3.77% metal price falls.
  • ORE -2.60% GXY -3.12% lithium unwinds.
  • MHJ -6.22% market update.
  • SGH -9.03% company says share priced overvalued. Unusual. But right.
  • HVN +3.97% shorts being squeezed a little.
  • RFG +2.97% shorts covering.
  • Speculative stock of the day: Blackham Resources (BLK) +22.00% record gold production of 6,498 oz up 19% and AISC reduced to $1,158 down 15%.
  • Biggest risers – SGF, SWM, BKL, IRI, MMS and BGA.
  • Biggest fallers – EWC, BIG, TAH, NGI, FXL and EHL.

TODAY

  • National Australia Bank (NAB) +2.34% First quarter profit rose 3% from a year ago to $1.65bn. It was down 1% from previous quarter though. Expenses rose 4% and Net Interest Margins were down but no details provided which is a shame. Bad and doubtful debts fell 2.4% which helped the numbers. CET1 Ratio was up 1bps to 10.2% with a January 2020 deadline of 10.5% looking very achievable. Solid result.
  • Rio Tinto (RIO) -0.98% Announced a record full year dividend of $5.2bn and an additional $1bn share buy-back. Guidance of capex expected to be around $5.5bn in 2018 and $6.0bn in 2019 and 2020. Production guidance is unchanged. A good solid result. 69% of earnings are from iron ore but copper seems to be becoming a crucial part of the growth strategy.
  • Tabcorp (TAH) -6.85% First half revenue up 19% to $1.4bn, net profit down 58% to $24.6m on the back of integration costs with former rival Tatts Group Ltd and write downs with its Sun Bets business in the UK. It expects $130m in annual EBITDA savings from the Tatts merger. Seems that WES is not the only company having issues with its UK expansion.
  • Mirvac (MGR) +0.49% Reaffirmed FY earnings per share guidance of 15.3c to 15.6c. First half net profit was down 7% on year to $456m. The company said it remains confident in its ability to deliver operating earnings growth of around 6-8% in FY18. Chief Executive, Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz also unveiled plans to buy back up to 2.6% of Mirvac's stock.
  • AGL (AGL) -2.05% First half revenue up 7% to $6.45bn. Record net profit up 91% to $622m. Affirmed FY18 guidance for an up to 30% rise in underlying earnings this financial year. Result maybe short of forecasts by Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, although JPMorgan said the numbers were "slightly better" than it was expecting.
  • BHP Billiton (BHP) -1.37% announced it has completed a $350m upgrade to the smelter at Olympic Dam. 3000 short term jobs were created. The whole planned expansion is far bigger though at around $2.1bn.

ECONOMIC NEWS

  • The NAB business conditions index rose 1 point to +15 in the fourth quarter to a level the bank said was well above the long-run average.
  • The NAB business confidence index eased slightly from +8 to +6 points in the quarter, a little above the average.

ALL ORDS SECTOR SUMMARY

ALL ORDS TOP MOVERS

ALL ORDS BOTTOM MOVERS

ASX 200 SECTOR SUMMARY

ASX 200 TOP MOVERS

ASX 200 BOTTOM MOVERS

BOND MARKET

ASIAN MARKETS

  • Chinese January imports rose 30.2%; forecast was for around 5%.
  • Exports rose 6.0% in January in yuan terms from a year earlier.
  • The trade surplus stood at 135.8 billion yuan (US$21.6bn).
  • Some of these numbers may have been affected by the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year holidays.

EUROPE AND US MORNING HEADLINES

  • World Bank chief says crypto currencies are 'Ponzi Schemes'.
  • Analysis by Bloomberg suggests that +4% falls in the S&P 500 and subsequent performances, suggest ultimately a return of 14% once the dust has settled. Bloomberg has looked at the results from 1928 but has not included recession years.

  • Tesla back in the news as it talks up cashflow and production. And in orbit for a million years.

MARKET MAP



View More Articles By Henry Jennings

Henry Jennings has been involved in financial markets for over 35 years as both a trader and a broker in London and Sydney.

Starting his career in London trading derivatives and moving to Australia in 1989, Henry eventually settled at Macquarie Group, rising to become a Divisional Director responsible for Equity Trading in Australia. For the last decade, Henry has been involved in private client broking and now writes exclusively for the renowned financial newsletter Marcus Today. Henry regularly appears on ABC TV and Sky Business as a market analyst, commentator and strategist and has presented at various conferences most recently for the AIA on the Gold Coast.

To gain further insights from Henry Jennings, Marcus Padley and the Marcus Today team of analysts, click here to register for a free trial of the Marcus Today daily newsletter.



Important note: Any financial product advice contained in this email is general financial product advice only and does not take into account any one person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Therefore, before acting on any financial product advice in this email, you should consider, with or without the assistance of an independent adviser, the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.
 

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