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3 Practical Ways To Use Consensus Forecasts
BY KENT KWAN - 11/12/2015 | VIEW MORE ARTICLES BY ATLASTREND

Remember when you were a kid and really wanted a particular gift for Christmas?

Christmas day arrives. Not only do you get what you wished for but you also receive all the accessories that goes with the gift. You are ecstatic that your expectations were exceeded and you feel like your parents are even more special than before.

Believe it or not, this is identical to how the share market operates in determining the price of a company’s shares. In the world of investing, the Christmas gift the share market expects from a listed company is simply called consensus or market forecasts. If a company delivers better than consensus forecasts, the market will typically feel the company is a bit more special than before and reward it with a higher share price. The reverse is also true of course.

Consensus Forecasts Explained

Most listed companies (particularly larger ones) have a number of research analysts from prominent investment banks and research firms write reports on the financial prospects of the company. This includes forecasting what they think the company’s future financial performance will be. The consensus or market forecast is simply the average of the financial forecasts provided by these research analysts.

Why are the consensus forecasts so important?

The value of a listed company’s shares are primarily based on the company’s ability to deliver future financial returns to shareholders. Consensus forecasts are vitally important since they are the market’s measure of what financial performance a company is expected to achieve.

How to Use Consensus Forecasts

Here are three proven ways to use consensus forecasts to gain an investment edge.

1. Let’s start with the obvious one. Companies that deliver financial performance exceeding consensus forecasts will usually see their share price start increasing as the market starts to price in even better financial performance in the future. Always be on the lookout for companies that are announcing better financial results (compared to consensus) or those that are guiding research analysts to increase their forecast earnings. 3.

2. Often we are asked how best to judge whether a company has good or bad management. Objectively, the way consensus forecasts vary over time is the best way to judge. For example, the chart below shows Royal Caribbean Cruises’ consensus forecast for 2015 increasing steadily for much of the past 2 years. In other words, management has been delivering more than what consensus forecast was originally expecting. The best management teams can do this consistently year in year out. 5.

3. On the flip side, be extremely wary of companies that deliver financial performance below consensus forecasts (“consensus miss”) or those that guide research analysts to lower consensus forecasts (“consensus downgrade”). From years of experience, misses and downgrades nearly always occur more than once within a short period of time. This is natural because the company usually won’t admit or perhaps don’t initially know the full extent of their own issues. If you see a significant consensus miss or downgrade, always consider selling out before more misses or downgrades come. Here is a recent example in the form of Woolworths:

Where to Find Consensus Forecasts

Summary consensus forecasts for revenue and earnings per share for many Australian and international listed companies are available for free at www.reuters.com/finance/stocks. Beware that some Australian online brokers also provide so called consensus forecasts but really only have 2 or 3 analysts providing data and isn’t really a true measure of market consensus. For the very serious investor, the most detailed breakdown of consensus forecasts is available via a paid Bloomberg subscription.

For more exclusive investing insights from AtlasTrend, visit www.atlastrend.com. AtlasTrend is an online investment service where our members have exclusive access to easily and transparently invest in their choice of world trends.



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Kent Kwan is a co-founder of AtlasTrend, a global equities fund manager that makes it easy for anyone to invest in the world's most thriving trends.


Disclaimer: Atlastrend Pty Ltd (ABN 83 605 565 491) is a Corporate Authorised Representative (No. 001233660) of Fundhost Limited (ABN 69 092 517 087, AFS License No. 233045). Any advice contained in this communication is general advice only. None of the information provided is, or should be considered to be, personal financial advice. The content has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situations or needs. If you consider it necessary you should seek your own advice before making any financial or investment decisions. The information provided in this communication is believed to be accurate at the time of writing. None of Atlastrend Pty Ltd, Fundhost Limited or their related entities nor their respective officers and agents accept responsibility for any inaccuracy in, or any actions taken in reliance upon, that information.

Any managed investment fund product (Fund) mentioned in this communication is offered at www.atlastrend.com via a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) which will contain all the details of the offer. The PDS is issued by Fundhost Limited as responsible entity for the investment fund products. Before making any decision to make or hold any investment in a Fund you should consider the PDS in full. The PDS is available at www.atlastrend.com or by calling AtlasTrend on 1800 589 778. Investment returns are not guaranteed. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.



 

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