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3 Powerful Forces Battering The Australian Dollar
BY KENT KWAN - 05/11/2015 | VIEW MORE ARTICLES BY ATLASTREND

Where do you think the Australia dollar will be trading at in 2 or 3 years?

As fund managers of international shares we are often asked for our views on the Australian dollar.

One of the most common question we have been asked recently is “surely the Australian dollar will go back up soon given how much it has fallen?” Actually, it is more of a statement than a question from most people who have seen the Australian dollar depreciate by over 30% (against the US$) since mid-2011.

Our short answer is the Australian dollar is very unlikely to appreciate significantly anytime soon. Here are three simple but powerful reasons why we have this view.

1. Yes, Iron Ore Matters

You are probably aware that Australia’s largest export, iron ore has seen large price falls. The chart above also shows how closely the movements in the Australian dollar are related to the price of iron ore.

Critics will say Australia doesn’t just depend on iron ore for exports. They are right. However, many of our other major exports such as coal and gold have also suffered large US$ price declines.

With China transitioning to a slower growth economy versus the previous decade, it is highly unlikely we will see commodity prices close to where they were just a few years ago. As a result, unless you know of another boom in Australia’s export industries around the corner, there is slim chance that the Australian dollar will be appreciating significantly anytime in the near future.

2. Declining Interest Rates

Simple economics tell us that countries with higher interest rates (and stable inflation) normally have stronger currencies. Overseas money will flow to these countries to purchase their local currency and earn more interest income.

The chart above shows that the Australian official cash rate from 2009 to 2012 was significantly higher than the equivalent rate in the US. While the rest of the major global economies including the US were busy dropping official interest rates to near zero to counter the global financial crisis, Australia was one of the only developed nations with an attractive interest rate for overseas investors. This was precisely why the Australian dollar was so strong during this period of time.

However, the opposite factors are now at play. Following the end of the commodities boom, the Reserve Bank has lowered official interest rates in Australia to 2.0%. Most in the market expect this to go even lower to support the Australian economy. In contrast, the major developed economies (e.g. US and UK) are more likely to be raising their interest rates in the near future following the recovery of their economies.

As a result, the buyers of Australian dollar that pushed the currency above US$1.00 a few years ago are unlikely to be buyers even at the current level of US$0.72. In fact, if the other major developed economies around the world keep delivering positive economic news, there is a good chance the Australian dollar may decline even more.

3. Currencies are not like companies

The chart above shows that the Australian dollar remained under US$0.80 for 10 years (late 1996 to early 2007) and under US$0.70 for nearly 6 years (late 1997 to late 2003). It also dipped to almost US$0.60 during the unprecedented and volatile period following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in late 2008 / early 2009.

Many factors contributed to the Australian dollar languishing at these levels. However, the most important insight from that experience is it takes many years for an economy to shift gears and for the currency to recover.

A company can change management or strategy and perhaps with hard work and some luck can revive financial performance over 2 to 3 years. For a country to do the same, history suggests it takes between 5 to 10 years. This makes sense given the amount of bureaucracy to overcome and work to do for a country to broadly improve its economic performance.

Right now, approximately 2 years have passed since the end of the commodities boom. If history repeats itself, the Australian dollar will likely trade under US$0.80 or even under US$0.70 for some time to come until other industries are able to fill the economic gap left by the end of the commodities boom.

For more insights on international investing sign up for free access at www.atlastrend.com.



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Kent Kwan is a co-founder of AtlasTrend, a global equities fund manager that makes it easy for anyone to invest in the world's most thriving trends.


Disclaimer: Atlastrend Pty Ltd (ABN 83 605 565 491) is a Corporate Authorised Representative (No. 001233660) of Fundhost Limited (ABN 69 092 517 087, AFS License No. 233045). Any advice contained in this communication is general advice only. None of the information provided is, or should be considered to be, personal financial advice. The content has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situations or needs. If you consider it necessary you should seek your own advice before making any financial or investment decisions. The information provided in this communication is believed to be accurate at the time of writing. None of Atlastrend Pty Ltd, Fundhost Limited or their related entities nor their respective officers and agents accept responsibility for any inaccuracy in, or any actions taken in reliance upon, that information.

Any managed investment fund product (Fund) mentioned in this communication is offered at www.atlastrend.com via a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) which will contain all the details of the offer. The PDS is issued by Fundhost Limited as responsible entity for the investment fund products. Before making any decision to make or hold any investment in a Fund you should consider the PDS in full. The PDS is available at www.atlastrend.com or by calling AtlasTrend on 1800 589 778. Investment returns are not guaranteed. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.



 

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