Stephen Koukoulas - 'Real' Retail Sales
While the event highlight next week will undoubtedly be the monthly RBA Board meeting (is it setting the scene for interest rate hikes or not?), the data highlight will be the retail sales data for June – and therefore the June quarter.
Some of the optimism about the economy in recent times has been linked to the last couple of retail sales reports which show solid growth of 1.0 per cent and 0.6 per cent, respectively. While these impressive results followed several months of retail sluggishness, there are hints that the struggling consumer is starting to lift spending, albeit with wages growth still very low and savings levels falling. Another solid retail sales result for June, of say 0.5 per cent growth, would help to support the optimistic views for the economy.
It would also mean that the June quarter ‘real’ retail sales growth rate was around 1.0 per cent, which would be a strong result that feeds into June quarter GDP - scheduled for release in early September.
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